Plain numbers on money decisions

20 Oct 2026 Chevron makes $18 billion a quarter in free cash. What did a SIP in Chevron actually do? +23.5% a year since the Hess deal, ahead of the S&P 500. Over ten years: +11.1%, behind it. → 2 Oct 2026 Adani pledges ₹6 lakh crore to Maharashtra. What did a SIP in Adani stocks actually do? Same group, same start date: +36.3% a year in Adani Enterprises, +26.2% in Ports, and an 83% fall on the way in Green. → 29 Sep 2026 KPIT writes the code in tomorrow’s cars. What did a KPIT SIP actually do? 25.15% a year since its 2019 listing, then a 66% fall from the 2024 high. A SIP started at that high is worth ₹58.50 per ₹100. → 29 Sep 2026 Nifty is more than 12% off its peak. Does buying the dip actually pay? 30 years of data: a SIP doubled in dips beat a plain SIP in 90% of 10-year periods. The catch: one dip lasted 39 months. → 28 Sep 2026 Suzuki wants 4 million cars a year from India. What did a Maruti SIP actually do? Since Feb 2017: Maruti Suzuki 9.33% a year, Nifty Auto 18.00%. The leader lagged its sector. → 28 Sep 2026 A Bank Nifty timing rule beat holding since 2024. How often does it? 11.54% a year vs 8.98% since March 2024. Since 2001 it won 47 of 279 periods. → 28 Sep 2026 Wind is on track for 100 GW by 2030. What did a Suzlon SIP actually do? From its 2007 peak: 12.95% a year, ahead of the Nifty 50, after 15 years below the money put in. → 28 Sep 2026 AI cloud could top $1 trillion by 2030. Who made money since ChatGPT? A monthly SIP since Dec 2022: Nasdaq 100 +26.6% a year, Bitcoin +28.5%, Nifty IT −4.3%. → Worked answers SIP, FIRE and the 4% rule: six questions, worked out What ₹10,000 a month becomes in 20 years, your FIRE number, and whether 4% is safe in India. → The idea What FIRE actually means Why financial independence matters more than retiring early. → History Where FIRE came from A 1992 book, and the blogger who made the idea popular. → The maths The 4% rule and its assumptions What the original study found, and the conditions people leave out. → The variants Lean, Coast, Barista, Chubby, Fat Five versions of the same goal, and how to tell which one you want. → Allocation How allocation changes with time Why a portfolio that suits you at 28 is too risky at 58. → The rule The 20/30/40 rule for buying a house 20% down, 30% of income on housing, 40% on all EMIs, and the house that buys. → Which rule 28/36 or 20/30/40? Two rules, one paycheque Why the Indian version is stricter, and what a floating rate does to each ceiling. → The real number What the sticker price hides A ₹80L flat costs ₹96.6L. Where the extra 20% goes, and the cash you need up front. → The price cap How much house? 3× or 5× your income Why 3× works out to a 25% EMI, and why 5× breaks the EMI limit. → The decoder Same digits, different rules Four rules use the same numbers for different things. What each one says. → Backtest Should you stop your SIP when the market falls? 12,060 timing rules against a plain SIP over 21 years. Only 14% won after tax. → Backtest 108 versions of a drawdown rule Which version won, and why that result needs caution. →